Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.016568 0.018789 0.021204 0.024025 0.027233 0.030770 0.034967
2025-04-27 0.013223 0.016303 0.019947 0.024581 0.030326 0.037227 0.046165
2025-05-04 0.011498 0.015003 0.019393 0.025308 0.033090 0.043005 0.056646
2025-05-11 0.009934 0.013574 0.018350 0.025094 0.034406 0.046861 0.064868
2025-05-18 0.008824 0.012547 0.017632 0.025113 0.035887 0.050917 0.073611
2025-05-25 0.007819 0.011517 0.016753 0.024741 0.036685 0.053989 0.081153
2025-06-01 0.007196 0.010949 0.016440 0.025103 0.038514 0.058629 0.091365
2025-06-08 0.006532 0.010238 0.015827 0.024920 0.039452 0.061960 0.099827
2025-06-15 0.006172 0.009949 0.015811 0.025631 0.041807 0.067638 0.112496
2025-06-22 0.005518 0.009127 0.014876 0.024766 0.041518 0.069030 0.118220
2025-06-29 0.005056 0.008571 0.014309 0.024438 0.042057 0.071780 0.126432
2025-07-06 0.004553 0.007897 0.013487 0.023592 0.041615 0.072798 0.131670
2025-07-13 0.004375 0.007773 0.013592 0.024381 0.044132 0.079226 0.147343
2025-07-20 0.004177 0.007596 0.013591 0.024979 0.046366 0.085361 0.163126
2025-07-27 0.004018 0.007471 0.013667 0.025717 0.048911 0.092269 0.181032
2025-08-03 0.003738 0.007097 0.013255 0.025499 0.049618 0.095775 0.192632
2025-08-10 0.003516 0.006813 0.012983 0.025518 0.050773 0.100224 0.206525
2025-08-17 0.003265 0.006450 0.012531 0.025140 0.051096 0.103048 0.217335
2025-08-24 0.003123 0.006291 0.012457 0.025508 0.052957 0.109110 0.235525
2025-08-31 0.002931 0.006014 0.012127 0.025322 0.053645 0.112808 0.248967
2025-09-07 0.002850 0.005955 0.012231 0.026044 0.056314 0.120891 0.272863
2025-09-14 0.002615 0.005558 0.011608 0.025166 0.055439 0.121277 0.279414
2025-09-21 0.002452 0.005299 0.011253 0.024833 0.055730 0.124230 0.292140